Before the season started, I made two lists of players that I thought would break out this season. In hindsight, I should have called it "players who would improve big time this year" because I wouldn't say anyone I picked had a truly "breakout" season. Still, I wanted to go back and see just how much the players I said would improve actually did improve (or how much they didn't). Let's get right into this, these are the 13 players I thought would improve and how they did this past season.
Deyonta Davis
What I Said:
"Davis is very young and has a lot of potential. It would be a good idea for the Grizzlies to capitalize on it this season."
What Actually Happened:
For starters, Davis did receive a much larger role in his sophomore season as a member of the Memphis Grizzlies, doubling his minutes per game and playing in 62 games (26 more than he did as a rookie) with six starts. With that additional playing time, Davis saw jumps in all statistical categories, averaging 5.8 points and 4 rebounds per game while shooting 61% from the field. Going by per 36 minutes stats, Davis goes up 13.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game. Davis wasn't able to secure a permanent starting spot in the Grizzlies frontcourt, instead of playing behind Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green for the most part, and now that he's been traded to the Sacramento Kings, he'll likely receive little playing time behind Marvin Bagley III and Willie Cauley-Stein.
Jon Leuer
What I Said:
"If he continues to get more minutes, he could be a solid piece of the Pistons lineup."
What Actually Happened:
Well, there's really not much to talk about with Jon Leuer this past season. Eight games into the season, Leuer ended up injuring his left ankle and after two months without it healing, Leuer opted to have season-ending surgery in January. In the games Leuer did play, he struggled, averaging 5.4 points (a drop of nearly half his 2016-17 average) and 4 rebounds per game while shooting 42% from the field without hitting a single three-pointer as the backup power forward behind Tobias Harris. If healthy, Leuer could be a solid back-up who could step in for Blake Griffin if he gets injured (which, judging by Griffin's last few seasons, is likely) and hopefully will bounce back next season.
Nerlens Noel
What I Said:
"Nerlens Noel is capable of being a starting center, and the Mavericks have the opportunity to create a strong frontcourt between Noel and Dirk Nowitzki if Noel is given more time to play."
What Actually Happened:
Like Jon Leuer, Nerlens Noel got bit by the injury bug early in the season, missing 42 games after tearing a ligament in his thumb. When Noel did play, however, he struggled big time, averaging 4.4 points (a drop of almost half from last season), 5.6 rebounds, and a steal per game while shooting 52% from the field on under 16 minutes per game. Just like his final days with the Philidelphia 76ers, Noel found himself behind other big men on the depth charts, this time playing under Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell, and Maxi Kleber. Noel's per 36 minutes look much better, giving 10 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game on the year, but the possibility that Noel, now on the Oklahoma City Thunder, will get starting caliber numbers on a regular basis over Steven Adams looks pretty unlikely at this point.
Willie Cauley-Stein
What I Said:
"The Kings are in rebuild mode right now, but this season is Willie Cauley-Stein's time to show what he can do in a full season."
What Actually Happened:
Willie Cauley-Stein ended up having similar numbers this season as he did the year before following the DeMarcus Cousins trade. For the season, Cauley-Stein played 28 minutes a game and averaged 12.8 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 50% from the field. That's slightly worse than the numbers he put up after the Cousins trade, but for the whole season, it's a big improvement. While his shooting percentages were down from the year before, Cauley-Stein improved in every statistical category, with his biggest improvement being a 4.7 increase in points per game. Only 25 years old, Cauley-Stein still has room to grow and I could see him continuing to improve on this Kings team.
Ian Clark
What I Said:
"While he definitely won't be the go-to scoring option on the Pelicans, but he could be a good third option to Anthony Davis & DeMarcus Cousins."
What Actually Happened:
Not what I said, that's for sure. To be fair, Ian Clark didn't have a terrible season, but despite an increase in playing time, Clark's improvement was small...very small. Playing 19.7 minutes per game, Clark ended the season with averages 7.4 points on 45% shooting and 32% three-point shooting. His improvement on the stat line was minimal, as his points, rebounds, and assists per game all went up by less than one. On top of that, Clark's shooting took a hit, as he dropped almost four percent from the field and over 5.5% from three-point range. Clark played behind E'Twaun Moore, a workhorse who didn't miss a single game this year, and with both of them returning to the Pelicans next season, I wouldn't expect Clark to have a breakout year. He'll probably slightly improve like he did this year, but nothing significant.
Jonathon Simmons
What I Said:
"If he continues to play the way he did in the playoffs, he could be a great addition to the team."
What Actually Happened:
Out of all the players I put on these lists, Jonathon Simmons was the one I thought I was definitely going to be right about. And for the most part, I was. The Orlando Magic were pretty much a dumpster fire for most of the season, but Simmons was one of the few beacons of light the team had. For the season, Simmons averaged 13.9 points per game while shooting 47% from the field and 34% from three-point range. Considering the much larger role Simmons received this season (an increase of 11.6 minutes per game.) it's no surprise that Simmons made statistical improvements nearly across the board, the most notable of which is a jump from 6.2 points to 13.9 points per game, an increase of 124%. On top of that, Simmons shooting also improved, with both his field goal percentage and three-point percentage going up by over 4%. Despite his season ending on a sour note following a wrist injury, I could see Simmons returning next season to put up similar or better numbers.
D'Angelo Russell
What I Said:
"I expect big things from D'Angelo Russell this season, and I believe he could end up winning Most Improved Player of the Year."
What Actually Happened:
D'Angelo Russell's season was...complicated. After a strong start to the season, Russell found himself sidelined for 32 games following a left knee injury. When he returned, he ended up coming off the bench for Spencer Dinwiddie, who was having a breakout season of his own, before ending the season as the starting point guard for the Brooklyn Nets once again. So yeah...complicated. Russell ended the season with averages of 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game while shooting 41% from the field and 32% from three-point range. Aside from a drop of nearly 3% from his three-point shooting from the previous season, Russell, for the most part, had a similar stat line to last year, despite actually playing less. I still believe Russell is capable of averaging over 20 points a game, and if stays healthy next season, I think he can pull it off.
Jusuf Nurkic
What I Said:
"If Nurkić continues to put up numbers like he did after his trade and stays healthy, he could be a huge asset to a young Trail Blazers team with a lot of potential."
What Actually Happened:
He was a huge asset to a young Trail Blazers team with a lot of potential. Going off of the numbers he had during short 20 game run with the Trail Blazers last season, I had predicted that Nurkic could put up at least similar numbers to what he did during that run. And for the most part, I was right. Nurkic ended the season with averages of 14.3 points, 9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 51% from the field. While those numbers were down from his time in Portland last season (he did play around 3 minutes less per game), he did end up with a huge improvement as a whole from the year before. Aside from small decreases in assists per game and field goal percentage and no change in steals per game, Nurkic improved, including an over four point increase in points per game and a nearly two rebound increase in rebounds per game. While I don't think he'll ever be an all-star, I do think he can continue to improve and next season, I think he can either match or beat his stat line from his first 20 game stint.
Glenn Robinson III
What I Said:
"Will Robinson be as good as Paul George one day? Probably not, but he has potential to be a good fit for a rebuilding Pacers' team, at least for now."
What Actually Happened:
I could not have timed that worse. I posted my second list on this subject on September 9th. Within a month, Robinson got hurt during a scrimmage and would end up missing the majority of the season. Robinson would end up playing in just 23 games this season and did not play much, under 15 minutes per game. Robinson ended the season averaging 4.1 points per game and shot 42% from the field, 41% from three-point range, and 82% from the free throw line. His numbers did drop in terms of points, rebounds, and shooting percentage, but he did see a 2% improvement in three-point percentage and a big 11% improvement in free throw percentage, albeit with small sample sizes (34 threes attempted and 11 free throws attempted.) This offseason, Robinson signed with the Detroit Pistons, a team who's starting forward (Stanley Johnson) is pretty much a black hole on offense so Robinson could see valuable playing time next season.
Dejounte Murray
What I Said:
"If given the chance to start and plays at the pace he did last year while working on things like ball security (he averaged a turnover a game last year despite only playing 8 minutes per game.) he could prove to be a valuable backup, and maybe even a starter after Parker retires."
What Actually Happened:
Honestly, Dejounte Murray exceeded my expectations. Murray was trusted with the starting spot early in the season due to Tony Parker's injury, but after a rocky start (combined with Parker returning earlier than expected) Murray found himself back on the bench playing inconsistent minutes. However, Murray ended up back in the starting line-up permanently and did not waste his opportunity. Murray, who more than double his minutes per game from the year before, ended the season with averages of 8.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 44% from the field. Murray stats improved almost across the board, including an increase of over 4.5 in points & rebounds and averaging a whole steal more than he did last year. Murray also improved his ball security, as he averaged 1.7 turnovers per game on 21.5 minutes per game. That might not seem great but it's much better than a turnover per game when you play only eight and a half minutes per game. Murray did struggle mightily from beyond the arc, as he shot over 12.5% worse from three-point range than he did last season, but he still has a bright future ahead of him, especially after Parker's departure.
Joe Ingles
What I Said:
"Ingles most likely won't be able to provide the scoring numbers that Gordon Hayward was able to, but he is a solid player who is very reliable on defense, especially when it matters. For now, he is a valuable member of the Utah Jazz."
What Actually Happened:
He obviously didn't put up the kind of numbers Gordon Hayward did in Utah, but Joe Ingles still had his best season to date and one player that Jazz fans loved having on their team. Moving firmly into the starting line-up in Utah post-Hayward, Ingles played in every game, averaged 31.4 minutes per game, and ended the season with averages of 11.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 47% from the field, 44% from three-point range, and 80% from the free throw line. Aside from a drop of only 0.1 in steals per game and three-point percentage (tragic, I know), Ingles improved across the board, including a 4.4 increase in points per game and a 2.1 increase in assists per game. The Jazz had a strong season this past year, and while he wasn't a star player for the team, he was still a very valuable asset to the team and hopefully will be for the next three years.
Dewayne Dedmon
What I Said:
"This offseason, he signed a multi-year deal with the Atlanta Hawks, where he could be the starting center for years to come. If that happens, he could develop into a valuable player to the franchise."
What Actually Happened:
You can tell I've got a lot of faith in guys Gregg Popovich has coached. After he had a decent little season as a backup center for the Spurs, I had thought that Dewayne Dedmon would have easily his best season yet after signing with the Atlanta Hawks during the offseason. And I gotta say, I think Dedmon lived up to my expectations pretty well. Dedmon averaged 10 points and 7.9 rebounds per game while shooting 52% from the field and 36% from three-point range. Thanks to an increase in playing time (24.9 minutes per game, a 7.4 increase from last year), Dedmon saw a jump in stats almost across the board, including nearly doubling his points per game. He did shoot nearly 10% worse from the field, but Dedmon made up for it a bit by developing a three-point shot that he never had. The Hawks might have been complete trash this year, but Dedmon had a solid season and hopefully, he can improve even more next season.
Clint Capela
What I Said:
"Clint Capela should be a huge part of that run, and if given even more minutes, he has the potential to win the Most Improved Player of the Year."
What Actually Happened:
Obviously, Clint Capela did not win Most Improved Player of the Year. However, he did end up improving from the previous year. Not a huge amount like the actual Most Improved Player of the Year winner Victor Oladipo did, but he still did better this year. For the year, Capela averaged 13.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game while shooting a career-best 65% from the field. While he only played 3.6 minutes per game more than he did last year, Capela was able to improve across the stat line aside from assists per game, which only went down 0.1. Capela's stats went up this season, with his points per game going up 1.3, his rebounds per game going up 2.7, and his blocks per game went up 0.7 for the year. Additionally, he shot the ball better from the field and from the free throw line. Capela's still only 24 years old, and I could see Capela continuing to improve for years to come. Next year, I could see Capela putting up even numbers
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